Dhanteras 2026: Gold nears Rs 1.45 lakh, should buyers wait for a dip or buy?

Gold prices surged on Wednesday, November 4, offering a fresh twist to the buying decision for households preparing for Dhanteras. The price of gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) rose by Rs 3,309, or 2.37%, to Rs 1,42,761, as of 2.13 pm, recovering after a sharp correction from its record high earlier this year.Retail gold prices also moved higher across major cities.In Delhi and Noida, 24-carat gold was priced at Rs 14,295 per gram, while 22-carat gold was selling at Rs 13,105 per gram. The price of 18-carat gold stood at Rs 10,725 per gram. In Mumbai, Kolkata and Bengaluru, 24-carat gold was priced at Rs 14,280 per gram and 22-carat gold at Rs 13,090 per gram.The latest rebound comes at a time when gold buyers are weighing the traditional appeal of purchasing the precious metal during Dhanteras against the sharp price swings seen in 2026. Gold touched a record high of around $5,595 per ounce in January before correcting sharply, with profit-taking, liquidation of leveraged positions, rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar putting pressure on prices.So, with gold rising again just ahead of the festive buying season, is this a good time to buy?WHY GOLD PRICES ARE RISING AGAIN Gold and silver have rebounded as the US dollar weakened following early Democratic wins in the US midterm elections, according to Augmont's November 4 bullion report.The report said investors were also watching the US non-farm payrolls report for clues about the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Early election results pointing to possible Democratic gains in both the House of Representatives and the Senate raised the possibility of political gridlock in Washington.Continuing geopolitical uncertainty is another factor supporting interest in safe-haven assets. Augmont noted that there was no sign of a breakthrough between Iran and the United States, with the two sides still far from a deal to end their conflict.The report also said a possible Democratic sweep could weigh on technology stocks and economic growth, potentially pushing more money towards safe-haven assets and pulling US bond yields lower.However, the recent recovery does not mean the pressure on gold has disappeared.Religare Broking's Special Diwali Report 2026 noted that the US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate in the 3.75%-4% range at its October meeting after raising it by 25 basis points in September. Two policymakers dissented in October, favouring another rate increase amid concerns over persistent inflation.Higher interest rates and bond yields can reduce the appeal of gold because the metal does not offer regular income. Religare also pointed to a stronger US dollar, which makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.IS THIS A GOOD TIME TO BUY GOLD?The two reports offer different time frames for assessing gold prices, but both suggest that buyers should keep an eye on important price levels.Augmont's November 4 report places domestic gold's support level at Rs 1.38 lakh per 10 grams and resistance at Rs 1.45 lakh. It said gold had recovered from oversold levels near $3,870 per ounce, equivalent to around Rs 1.38 lakh domestically.According to the report, a sustained move above $3,970, or around Rs 1.40 lakh, could open the way for a recovery towards $4,050, equivalent to around Rs 1.43 lakh.At the same time, Religare Broking's broader technical outlook places gold's accumulation zone at Rs 1.30 lakh-Rs 1.35 lakh per 10 grams. It has set price targets of Rs 1.50 lakh and Rs 1.58 lakh, with Rs 1.21 lakh as the key support or risk level.The MCX price of Rs 1,42,761 on November 4 is above Religare's suggested accumulation zone and close to Augmont's resistance level of Rs 1.45 lakh. This suggests that while gold has recovered, buyers entering at current levels should be mindful of the possibility of further volatility.These are brokerage assessments and technical levels, not guaranteed price movements.LONG-TERM GOLD DEMAND REMAINS INTACTDespite the correction, Religare's report points to continued interest in gold from central banks and global investors.Central-bank gold purchases recovered sharply in the second quarter of 2026. Net purchases stood at around 289 tonnes in Q2, compared with 57 tonnes in Q1, taking first-half purchases to approximately 346 tonnes.Investment demand also showed signs of recovery in the third quarter. After global gold ETFs recorded outflows of 45 tonnes in Q2, they attracted record inflows of $30.7 billion, or 211 tonnes, in Q3.This renewed interest is important because central-bank purchases and investment flows can provide support to gold prices over the longer term, even as short-term movements remain sensitive to interest rates and currency movements.Religare said geopolitical developments, US monetary policy, the dollar and bond yields will remain key factors determining the direction of gold prices.WHAT SHOULD DHANTERAS BUYERS KEEP IN MIND?Gold has traditionally been associated with prosperity and new beginnings during Diwali, making Dhanteras an important occasion for household purchases. But this year's price movement means buyers are entering the festive period after an unusually volatile year.The recent rebound may encourage buyers who were waiting for prices to recover. However, the current MCX price is already above Religare's suggested accumulation zone and approaching Augmont's near-term resistance level.For those buying gold primarily as part of a festive or family tradition, the decision may be different from that of someone looking to invest purely for returns. Buyers should also remember that the prices quoted for bullion are not necessarily the final amount they will pay for jewellery, as the reports do not account for additional purchase costs.The larger picture is that gold continues to have support from central-bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed ETF interest. But a stronger dollar, elevated interest rates and profit-taking remain risks.For Dhanteras buyers, the key question may therefore not be whether gold has a long-term place in a portfolio, but whether they are comfortable buying after a sharp one-day rebound and at prices close to a near-term resistance level.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)- Ends