CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast

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Postmedia has not reviewed the content. by GlobeNewswire CREA Revises Resale Housing Market ForecastAuthor of the article:OTTAWA, Ontario, Oct. 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its 2026 and 2027 forecasts for home sales activity and average home prices via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLYSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESCreate an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountIt’s been another roller-coaster year for many of the factors that have the greatest impact on housing markets. In 2025, it was on and off tariffs and the related uncertainty for prospective home buyers. This year, it has been on and off inflation risks from a global energy crisis and its impact on borrowing costs.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.Fixed mortgage rates jumped higher this spring following the start of the Iran conflict. Oil prices and the risk of Bank of Canada rate hikes, along with fixed mortgage rates, then cooled off over the summer.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againAs of early September, oil prices were rising again amid a number of global capacity and refinery disruptions. Combined with a notably more hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada, fixed mortgage rates have jumped even higher, and markets are now pricing in approximately 100 basis points of rate hikes by this time next year.The recent shift in fixed-rate mortgage affordability, combined with continued uncertainty around variable rates, has already shown up in the form of lower home sales activity in September.How far the Bank will ultimately have to go to rein in inflation next year is a major unknown; however, events already in the books since early September have resulted in a downward revision to the forecast for home sales, and a small adjustment to the forecast for home prices over the balance of 2026 and in 2027.Some 444,530 residential properties are forecast to trade hands via Canadian MLS® Systems in 2026, representing a 5.2% decline from 2025. The downward revision from the previous forecast reflects lower expected activity in the final four months of the year. Given the main reason is higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty around how much variable rates will ultimately have to rise, downward revisions were spread evenly across all provinces except for Newfoundland and Labrador, where the market is still very active.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.The national average home price is forecast to edge higher by just 0.2% on an annual basis to $681,681 in 2026, slightly lower but largely unchanged from CREA’s July forecast. The national figure in 2026 is the result of a decline of 0.8% in British Columbia, along with a larger 3% dip in Ontario. These are forecast to be just offset by ongoing but slowing price growth in other provinces.Outside of Ontario and B.C., average price growth is expected to be back in the low-to-mid single digits on an annual basis in 2026, with the largest gains in Newfoundland and Labrador (+5.7%) and Saskatchewan (+5%).In 2027, national home sales are forecast to climb 4.4% to 464,235 units, with most provincial markets expected to see gains between 3% and 6%. This forecast is predicated on slow but positive economic growth, the resumption of higher population growth, and more certainty for borrowers around the path for interest rates which should bring more pent-up demand into the market even with higher borrowing costs.At present, this forecast assumes limited action by the Bank over the next year. The current consensus of interest rate forecasts is leaning towards the Bank hiking by less than markets have been pricing in.This advertisement has not loaded yet.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.The national average home price is forecast to climb 1.2% from 2026 to $689,909 in 2027, again little changed from CREA’s July forecast. Gains are expected to be held to below 2% everywhere but Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan, though even in these supply-constrained markets, price growth is expected to cool to just 3.1% and 2.5% respectively.This forecast would mark the sixth and seventh consecutive years that the national average home price has hovered close to the $700,000 mark.Each quarter, CREA updates its forecast for home sales activity and average home prices via Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations. CREA’s next forecast will be published mid-January 2027. CREA will publish its 2027 Statistics and Forecast release schedule in December 2026.About the Canadian Real Estate AssociationThe Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry associations. CREA works on behalf of more than 155,000 REALTORS® who contribute to the economic and social well-being of communities across Canada. Together they advocate for property owners, buyers, and sellers.For more information, please contact:Pierre Leduc, Media RelationsThe Canadian Real Estate AssociationTel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460E-mail: pleduc@CREA.caThis advertisement has not loaded yet.Notice for the Postmedia NetworkThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.