Could UK politics return to a two-horse race? Burnham and Badenoch climb in the polls

Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch are enjoying polling boosts as political commentators question whether British politics is slowly edging back towards a contest dominated by Labour and the Conservatives. Amid mounting Westminster speculation about a snap general election, well-received party conference speeches by the Prime Minister Burnham and Conservative leader Badenoch appear to have helped both leaders consolidate support, while momentum for Reform UK and the Green Party shows signs of slowing.The latest Opinium polling puts Labour on 29 per cent, with Reform on 23 per cent and the Conservatives up three points up to 20 per cent following their annual conference. The Greens have dipped two points to nine per cent, while support for the Liberal Democrats remains unchanged at 9 per cent.According to the survey, a third of voters viewed Badenoch's conference speech positively, compared with 14 per cent who reacted negatively. More than half said they had no clear view.The findings suggest the Tory leader may have secured an early conference bounce after unveiling plans including a pledge to cut inheritance tax, the Mail on Sunday reports.While Labour remains ahead, recent polling has fuelled fresh debate about whether Britain's increasingly fragmented political landscape could once again become a contest between the two traditional governing parties.Burnham has enjoyed a notable rise in support since entering Downing Street. According to polling cited by The Independent, Labour has reached its strongest position since early 2025. The figures suggest some voters who drifted away from Labour in recent years are returning.The Greens, once viewed as a potential beneficiary of voter disillusionment with the main parties, appear to be losing momentum under Zack Polanski. His failure to win last week's Holborn and St Pancras by-election has raised fresh questions about the party's strategy and ability to convert polling support into parliamentary breakthroughs.A number of Green councillors and elected representatives have since sought to distance themselves from the motion, exposing tensions within the party and drawing unwelcome attention away from its core environmental message.Read MoreAs Labour recovers support among progressive voters under Burnham, some analysts believe Green support is being squeezed. For Labour strategists, that trend could be almost as significant as Reform's slip in the polls. Among former Labour supporters, support for the party is said to have risen significantly since Burnham took over as leader.This is especially apparent in younger people, with Labour's ratings among 18 to 24-year-olds improving while Reform's remain relatively low among that age group.The polling gains have coincided with growing speculation over whether Burnham could seek an early election to secure a personal mandate for his programme of government.The Prime Minister has repeatedly played down the prospect, insisting he wants to focus on governing rather than campaign planning. However, reports suggest opposition parties are preparing for the possibility of an earlier-than-expected contest.Badenoch told the Mail on Sunday that the Conservatives needed to be prepared for an election "at any point"."We know there's a battle of ideas coming in British politics and I've instructed the Conservative Party to be ready for an election at any point," she said.Conservative strategists believe the party could benefit if support for smaller rivals continues to soften, while Labour allies argue Burnham's conference speech has helped re-establish a clear political message after a turbulent period for the party.Addressing delegates last month, Burnham pledged to break with what he described as the political consensus of the past four decades.He said: “Britain has been on the wrong path for a long time. Deindustrialisation. Deregulation. Privatisation. Austerity. Brexit.“And what has it given us? A country run for vested interests. Not in the public interest. With power held in too few hands. And too many places left to drift. “I am ready to do things my predecessors wouldn’t. I will make a break with the direction of the past 40 years and put Britain on a new path.”