Copernicus: 2026 ‘virtually certain’ to exceed 1.5 C threshold

The planet recorded its warmest October ever measured, according to the EU climate agency. And it’s likely to get even warmer as a “super El Niño” wreaks havoc. (CN) — Last month was the warmest October ever recorded globally, making it ever more likely this year will surpass the Paris climate agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the European Union’s climate monitor reported Friday.In October, the average global temperature was 15.35 C (59.63 F), according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.The agency expects 2026 to end close to 2024, the hottest year on record and the only year 1.5 C (2.7 F) warmer than the preindustrial era. In 2024, temperatures averaged about 1.6 C (2.88 F) above the preindustrial 1850-1900 baseline.In 2015, world leaders signed the Paris Agreement, pledging to limit warming to 1.5 C by reducing carbon emissions. But efforts have fallen short, and scientists warn warming is accelerating.Scientists warn of catastrophic climate risks if global temperatures remain above 1.5 C for decades. Monthly or annual breaches are early signs of approaching that long-term threshold.Copernicus said 2026 was “virtually certain” to exceed the 1.5 C mark and would likely be the second-warmest year on record.The agency also expects the four-year global temperature average from 2023 to 2026 to exceed the 1.5 C mark.The outlook for the coming months is grim as an exceptionally strong El Niño weather pattern emerges in the Pacific Ocean. El Niños are associated with warmer temperatures and extreme weather.Its effects are already being felt in Asia, where intense typhoons have struck. The pattern is expected to bring droughts, devastating floods, heat waves and massive wildfires worldwide.On Oct. 21, United Nations officials warned that 50 million people faced increased hunger due to this El Niño event. The pattern is expected to peak at year’s end, though its effects could linger for months, experts say.Celeste Saulo, the secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said this El Niño could be “unprecedented in strength, literally, off the monitoring charts.”El Niño could become “a wrecking ball that will likely tear through Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific with extreme heat, droughts and floods,” said Tom Fletcher, the U.N.’s emergency relief chief.Copernicus attributed October’s record-breaking temperature to El Niño adding to warming caused by climate change. It was the third consecutive month with temperatures exceeding 1.5 C above the 1.5 C mark.In October, global sea temperatures also set a new record, with waters outside the polar regions reaching 20.95 C (69.71 F), the agency said.Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads