COP31 hosts Australia and Türkiye face the fossil-fuel question

The next United Nations climate change conference, COP31, will be held in Antalya in Türkiye in November this year. Türkiye will be hosting the event, with its environment minister Murat Kurum serving as COP31 president. Australia will oversee the negotiations process, with its energy and climate change minister Chris Bowen as the vice-president of COP31.This is a novel arrangement — a result of both Australia and Türkiye not being willing to concede their demand to host, and where both countries share crucial responsibilities. In previous editions, the COP’s physical host has differed from the president only for logistical reasons.A pre-COP event will be held in Fiji on October 5-8, where Pacific Island countries and Australia will discuss preparations for the main event, including what to negotiate. These pre-COPs are a routine affair before the annual summits.Domestic fossil relianceBoth Türkiye and Australia are heavy users of fossil fuels. Australia is the world’s third-largest fossil fuels exporter, after Russia and the U.S. Domestically, Australia as well as Türkiye rely on coal, gas, and oil to generate respectively around 90% and 80% of their energy needs. Three weeks ago, Australia also came under fire from climate groups for approving the expansion of a coal mine.The primary goal at COP31 is a target to electrify industry and vehicles and in turn “to raise the share of final energy demand met by electricity from just over 20% today to 35% by 2035”.‘Oceans and Seas’ are also a priority agenda: Türkiye hosted a ‘Blue Dialogue’ on September 10-11 whose focus was on protecting marine resources.However, none of the themes listed as a priority for the event make direct reference to transitioning away from fossil fuels.That said, various industries in Australia, including iron-ore mining, are trying to decarbonise by investing in hybrid or electric heavy machinery. Local governments are also pushing for electric vehicles (EVs), which recently overtook petrol car sales for the first time in Australia.Türkiye, on the other hand, is working to augment recycling and so eventually reduce methane emissions. In fact, the country has listed ‘zero waste and a circular economy’ on the COP31 priority list. The fortunes of a local EV brand, Togg, has ballooned so much that the government hopes it will herald a new era in the automobiles market.Loss and damage financingAt the COP30 in Belém, Brazil, last year, the European Union pushed for a “fossil fuel roadmap” to help countries worldwide transition away from fossil fuels. While many countries supported the call, observers have said it took the focus away from developing countries’ calls to triple adaptation finance and developed countries’ resistance to that.That said, most countries involved in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) did not oppose the call for the “fossil fuel roadmap” at COP30. India did not oppose either, on the condition that it incorporate the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and that countries are not expected to follow uniform energy transition pathways.Beyond the UNFCCC framework as well, and partly because of the slow pace of negotiations at the COP summits, there have been calls for concrete action to transition away from fossil fuels. In April this year, the first conference on ‘Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels’ was held in Santa Marta in Colombia, co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands. The second conference is scheduled for 2027, to be co-hosted by Tuvalu and Ireland.Given such momentum, there is likely to be pressure on the COP31 presidencies to include fossil fuel language as part of the agenda. The catastrophic floods in Nepal on August 26, boosted no doubt by climate change, and the damage they wrought are also set to add momentum to both mitigation action, including the language surrounding fossil fuels at COP31, and to loss and damage financing. But as with their not mentioning the transition away from fossil fuels, the joint Australia-Türkiye presidents have also included no loss and damage financing, or even the broader climate finance question, among the priority topics.“We know there are strong views on all sides of this topic,” the Türkiye presidency said in response to questions from the author about whether this will change. “We will create space for Parties to discuss the transition and listen carefully to the positions they bring forward to see what we can agree by consensus. But listening to Parties’ views on negotiations does not mean we are standing still. We are taking the next logical steps in the energy transition by making electrification the flagship thematic priority of the COP31 Presidency’s Action Agenda, because electrifying buildings, transport and industry is key to reducing emissions and should be accompanied by complementary efforts to expand renewable energy.Likewise, the reply said on mitigation financing: “we have been clear that we need to close the climate finance chasm, and we are holding donors to the financial commitments made at past COPs, while also introducing innovative new mechanisms, such as the ‘Climate Implementation Bridge’, to address the gap between ambitious climate plans and the finance needed to make them a reality.”The Australian presidency did not respond. Countries participating at COPs can propose new agenda items for consideration during negotiations. For example, the European Union introduced the “roadmap” in the formal negotiations agenda at the last minute at COP30. That said, it remains to be seen whether countries will do so at COP31, and if so what the items will be — and ultimately how the event’s two fossil fuel-heavy stewards will navigate negotiations.The author was in Türkiye September 8-13 at the invitation of the government for a COP31-themed media tour. She also visited Australia in October 2025 on a similar official tour.Rishika Pardikar is a freelance journalist.