Coalition returned to government in new poll, as Opportunity loses kingmaker spot

The current coalition government would be returned to power based on the results of a new poll, with Opportunity unable to breach the threshold and become kingmaker.The Qiulae Wong-led upstarts have fallen from 6.1 to 4.5 percent in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, bucking the trend found in other polls.National was down two percentage points to 29 percent, and Labour down 1.9 to 25.9 percent.ACT and the Greens were the main beneficiaries. The Greens were up 3.8 percentage points to 13.9 percent, and ACT up 3.2 to 10.5 percent.New Zealand First was down 0.7 to 8.4 percent.Te Pāti Māori gained 0.5 points to 2 percent. The party this year hopes to use MMP's overhang to boost the chance of removing the coalition.Te Pāti Māori are trying to win all seven Māori seats, rather than boost their party vote.RNZ / Mark PapaliiRounding out the party vote results were NZ Loyal (1.5 percent), Animal Justice (1.2), Women's Rights (0.7), Vision NZ (0.5) and the New Conservatives (0.5).When it came to seats, the coalition - National, ACT and NZ First - would get 64 compared to the opposition - Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori - on 56. The right-leaning Taxpayers' Union's analysis assumes Te Pāti Māori would win three seats.Opportunity would get zero on these results, being below the 5 percent threshold.Christopher Luxon remained ahead of Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister, down 2 percentage points to 21.2 percent. Hipkins fell 2.9 to 16.9 percent.The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Tuesday 01 September and Thursday 03 September 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 4.1% were undecided on the party vote question.