Can Kemi Badenoch turn things around for the British Conservatives?

Open this photo in gallery:Conservative Party Leader Kemi Badenoch speaks to media at Westminster City Hall in London, following 2026 local election results, May 8.Carl Court/Getty ImagesKemi Badenoch’s future as leader of Britain’s Conservative Party could not have looked much worse this time last year, and there were real doubts about the survival of the 200-year old party, long considered the most successful in Europe.But in a remarkable turnaround, Ms. Badenoch has brought the Tories back into relevance and become one of the most popular politicians in the country. Some pundits have called it a “Keminaissance.” It’s quite a feat for the 46-year old former computer engineer, who grew up in Nigeria and is the first Black woman to lead a major political party in the United Kingdom. As she heads to the Conservative Party’s annual conference this weekend in Birmingham, Ms. Badenoch can relish the results of a recent poll by YouGov involving 17,000 adults. A seat projection based on the poll found that if an election were held that day, no party would win a majority, but the Conservatives would be second to Labour and ahead of Reform UK. A similar poll a year ago predicted the Tories would be wiped out and Reform would win a resounding victory. “I knew very well what she’s capable of because in her character, she’s tough, very tough,” said Tory MP Iain Duncan Smith, who led the party from 2001 to 2003. “She reminds me a lot of the sort of determination and intellect of Margaret Thatcher,” he said, referring to the Conservative heavyweight who served as prime minister from 1979 to 1990. “She’s got a certainty about what she believes.” Open this photo in gallery:Ms. Badenoch caused controversy last year by saying that 'not all cultures are equally valid' when it comes to deciding who should be allowed into the U.K.Supplied/AFP/Getty ImagesMr. Duncan Smith credited Ms. Badenoch with uniting the notoriously fractious party. “The important thing is we need to be able to let the people know there is a major choice to be made at the next election. I think Kemi epitomizes that,” he added. Not many people gave Ms. Badenoch much of a chance when she narrowly won the race to become leader in November, 2024. The party was still reeling from a disastrous election four months earlier and Nigel Farage, Reform’s populist leader, was usurping Ms. Badenoch as the leading voice on the right.Ms. Badenoch had only been an MP since 2017 and she lacked the posh, privately educated upbringing synonymous with Tory leaders of the past. She was born Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke in the London borough of Wimbledon to well-off parents from Nigeria – her father was a doctor and her mother a professor of physiology. Her parents had come to Britain because Ms. Badenoch’s mother needed a specialist obstetrician. The family returned to Lagos shortly after she was born. By the time Ms. Badenoch was a teenager, Nigeria had been rocked by years of political instability and her parents had lost most of their money. They sent their daughter to London to live with a family friend and finish high school. To make ends meet, Ms. Badenoch took a job at McDonald’s. She no longer identifies as Nigerian. “I’m Nigerian through ancestry,” she has said, “but by identity, I’m not really.” In another interview, she said growing up in Nigeria had given her an appreciation of Britain. “I always say that Britain is the best place in the world to be Black. And I still stick to that.”After high school, she studied computer engineering at the University of Sussex and landed IT jobs in banking. She joined the Conservatives while at university and embraced the ideas of self-reliance, free enterprise and Brexit. She also met her future husband at a party event. They married in 2012 and have three children. Prime Minister Andy Burnham said in an interview released Wednesday that Britain should consider options for its future relationship with the European Union, including ultimately rejoining the bloc, as he steps up efforts to rebuild ties with Europe.ReutersSince becoming leader, Ms. Badenoch has pulled the Conservatives further to the right in a bid to fend off Reform. She’s called for lower taxes, cuts to welfare spending and swift deportation of illegal immigrants. She caused controversy last year by saying that “not all cultures are equally valid” when it comes to deciding who should be allowed into the U.K. And she has firmly rejected identity politics. “The Conservatives will stand up for the silent majority who want order, fairness, common sense and one law for everyone,” she said last year.She struggled initially to gain much traction with voters. Her combative style was seen as a turn-off, and there were calls for her to resign after the Tories lost hundreds of seats in local elections in May, 2025. “All Badenoch has offered is inertia and inaction,” former Tory adviser Phillip Blond wrote on X. Her fortunes turned as then-prime-minister Kier Starmer faltered. With every government misstep, Ms. Badenoch found her footing. Her attack on the government’s widely unpopular budget last November went viral on social media. “She is spineless, shameless and completely aimless,” Ms. Badenoch said, referring to the chancellor of the exchequer at the time, Rachel Reeves.Another boost came in May, 2026, when the Conservatives stemmed losses in local elections and won a parliamentary by-election in Scotland. Reform’s popularity also waned as Mr. Farage confronted fundraising scandals. Polls show 38 per cent of voters approve of Ms. Badenoch’s performance as leader, up 23 points from October, 2025. Her challenge now is to translate that personal popularity to the party. Support for the Conservatives remains stuck at around 19 per cent, behind Labour and about even with Reform. “The party itself clearly can’t escape from the electorate viewing it as it did in 2024,” said Tony Travers, associate dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics.Ms. Badenoch is up against Andy Burnham, who replaced Mr. Starmer as Labour Leader and Prime Minister last July. Mr. Burnham has proven to be more pragmatic and a better communicator, Dr. Travers said.Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, cautioned against reading too much into Ms. Badenoch’s resurgence. “Quite how even the most enthusiastic Tory can claim she’s some sort of saviour is, frankly, beyond me,” he said.He noted that the Conservatives won 24 per cent of the vote in the 2024 election and now average just below 20 per cent in most polls. “If that’s success, I’d love to know what constitutes failure,” he said.