Brazil votes in high-stakes Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro presidential race

Brazil heads into a knife-edge presidential vote between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro. The result will test the country's deep polarisation and may hinge on turnout and late shifts.Image used for representational purposes onlySaopaulo,Oct 4, 2026 10:44 ISTBrazilians vote on Sunday in a high-stakes presidential election that has turned into a straight fight between incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, two ideological rivals who are both seen as having a chance of winning outright. If no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the vote, the top two will go to a run-off on October 25.Almost 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in the contest in Latin America’s biggest economy. Ten other candidates are expected to win much smaller shares of the vote. Voters will also elect 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 federal congressmen and 54 of the country’s 81 senators.Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of US President Donald Trump. Lula, 80, is contesting his seventh presidential election and has strengthened Brazil’s ties with Beijing. While Bolsonaro has leaned into his ideological alliance with Trump, Lula has criticised Washington and often spoken about the risks of US intervention in Brazil’s elections after the Trump administration imposed high tariffs on Brazilian exports, revoked the visa of the country’s ambassador in Washington and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice who chaired the probe that led to Jair Bolsonaro being sentenced.Flavio Bolsonaro has highlighted his proximity to the White House and said Brazil needs better deals with the Trump administration, including in the rare minerals sector. Brazil estimates its deposits at up to 21 million tonnes, second only to China. He has also campaigned on freeing his father from a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup and bringing him back into politics. Bolsonaro has denied receiving help from the US government. “That narrative won’t stick, sorry,” he said at a September campaign event. Political consultant Thomas Traumann said late mistakes by either candidate or their allies could prove decisive among undecided voters. “Polarisation in Brazil created a trap. There’s no third candidate. You only have two options, and they fight each other in an atmosphere that becomes worse and worse,” Traumann said. “It is much more a competition of accusations than a competition of proposals.”Four years ago, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by 2.1 million votes, a margin of just under 2 percentage points. At the time, Brazilians were unhappy with the then president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, his repeated threats to democracy, his attacks on the electronic voting system and the poor state of the economy as inflation rose. Now Lula faces a difficult fight because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same justice who led the investigation into Bolsonaro. Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, said some voters have grown tired of Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term as president. “Many in the Lula campaign were not expecting such a difficult election a few weeks ago, and it is clear to them that the present election is a tough battle and the next ones, without Lula, could be even more so,” Melo said. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, has faced several corruption accusations, the latest involving a disgraced banker who allegedly paid him millions of dollars to produce a film on his father’s life. More recently, he has also come under criticism from Roman Catholics who fear he could make too many concessions to his evangelical base.The election has left Brazil facing a tense and closely fought contest between Lula and Bolsonaro, with the result likely to depend on turnout, undecided voters and whether either side makes a late mistake before the count.With PTI Inputs- Ends