Arizona Fall League Midseason Check-In

Kyle Ross-Imagn Images The 2026 Arizona Fall League is three weeks old and I’ve now seen every team at least a handful of times. This means I’ve got a handle on a good bit of the league and also can start to identify what gaps I need to fill in during the second half of the slate. I’ve updated the Fall League tab over on The Board to reflect what Brendan Gawlowski (during his week here in Phoenix) and I have assessed, using the “Trend” column to draw your focus to whose stock we think is moving (with the up or down arrows), who has popped onto our radar for the first time (with the “New” label), and who I still need to see more of (with the target) to feel comfortable assessing. We have not changed anyone’s FV grade because three weeks of looks is only a slice of the evaluation pie and our thoughts might yet change, though we have given interim grades to the “New” players. Below I’m going to take you through my thoughts on the most notable names and movers from the six-team league. I’m writing as if you already know a bit about each player’s trajectory and background. If you don’t, go to The Board and read their full scouting report, as they tend to provide the 360-degree view of the player’s career. Ascending, Star-Caliber Prospects Sebastian Walcott, SS, Texas Rangers Dax Kilby, SS, New York Yankees Both Walcott (internal brace elbow surgery) and Kilby (hamstring) spent a big portion of the season rehabbing from serious injuries. They look like the two best players in Arizona by a wide margin. Walcott stands head and shoulders (often literally) above everyone else in terms of his physical prowess. He has consistently shown all-fields power and has been passable in his return to playing defense at shortstop. That Walcott has a chance to debut as a shortstop, at his size, is remarkable. But players this big tend to move to the outfield, à la Oneil Cruz, and Walcott has begun to work out there a bit during pre-game drill, though he hasn’t yet played on the grass in a game. You can make an argument that Walcott is the best prospect in baseball; he’s going to have plus-plus power, hit enough to get to most of that power, and has a shot to play shortstop into his mid-20s. Brewers shortstop Jesús Made has a more stable contact profile, but Walcott has more power and, even though he’s a bit older than Made, he also has more room left on his frame for added strength. This is a player who could be a 30-homer shortstop at ages 23-25, and then a 40-homer outfielder at age 30. Kilby is the best pure hitter in the Fall League. His hands just seem to be in the right place a lot of the time, and he can adjust the posture of his upper body to help get the barrel where it needs to go. He peppers both gaps with a lot of hard contact and he still has room for more mass. Defensively, Kilby doesn’t look like a viable shortstop. You could argue this has at least something to do with him returning to action after a serious hamstring issue, but I’ve had Kilby projected to move to the outfield since he was in high school, and the way he looks at shortstop now has just reinforced my priors. He’s still a really exciting prospect, and I think he’s going to hit enough that it won’t matter very much where he plays. Walcott will likely be a top 2-5 prospect for us, and Kilby will probably be top 20. Super Talented, Considerably Flawed Jarlin Susana, RHP, Washington Nationals Bryce Rainer, SS, Detroit Tigers Susana is sitting 99-102 and routinely bends in a plus-plus curveball. He also can’t throw strikes, and his fastball doesn’t move enough to forgive poor location, even at elite velocity. He has looked like a reliever to me, but I don’t really care to move Susana down because I think elite relievers like the one he’ll be deserve to have top 25-ish placement on the universal prospect list, anyway. If I had known Josh Hader or Edwin Díaz would go on to have the careers they did, they would have been top 15 prospects. Susana is looking at an outcome in the Jhoan Duran realm. Rainer’s swing is longer and crazier than You Can See Everything. He has a huge arm bar and it takes forever for his bat to enter the hitting zone. He also has some of the best lefty bat speed I’ve ever seen, and his best swings are like watching a lefty-hitting Ronald Acuña Jr. Rainer has already become quite barrel-chested and he isn’t especially range-y on defense, but he has a ridiculous arm that makes up for his other little deficiencies. Same as Susana: I’m not inclined to move where we have Rainer graded. He’s so talented that I’m happy to accept the risk that he won’t hit and am valuing him as a top 25-ish prospect because he has 35-homer upside if he does. If he shows up for camp in February and his physique has continued to trend bulky, I’ll become more apprehensive about this working out. Good Prospects Reinforcing Strong Pre-existing Evals Zyhir Hope, OF, Detroit Tigers Arjun Nimmala, SS, Los Angeles Angels Eduardo Quintero, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers Tate Southisene, SS, Atlanta Braves Caleb Bonemer, OF, Chicago White Sox These guys are already graded as future everyday players and, based on how they have looked, there’s no reason to change that. Bonemer entered the AFL season as the one of this group I was worried I’d come away feeling more skeptical about because of how much whiffing he did during the regular season. Instead, I think his power is weaponized by sufficient barrel feel. He is likely to be a left field-only defender in the big leagues, but he could have output similar to Teoscar Hernández. Southisense and Quintero feel, to me, like the ones with the best chance of outgrowing the 50-FV tier between now and when they debut. They simply have better tools than the other power-centric hitters here, especially Southisene. Arrow Up Potential Stars Nathan Flewelling, C, Tampa Bays Rays Charles Davalan, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers Zion Rose, OF, Kansas City Royals Tai Peete, OF, St. Louis Cardinals I was apprehensive about stuffing Flewelling during the last list cycle because both his defense and hit tool are 30s on the scale right now. His defense is still a significant issue, but he’s a 19-year-old Canadian kid, so of course it is. Flewelling has such rare lefty power and athleticism (he’s an above-average runner once he gets moving and is such a smooth, graceful mover) that he could profile as an everyday corner outfielder if it comes to that, though I don’t think it will. Davalan is revisiting second base, where he played as a freshman at Florida Gulf Coast, and it’s going well. A long in-person look has also made me confident that he has meaningful juice despite being such a little guy. He’s going to be an everyday player, even if that means playing a mix of second base and left field the way Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernández would in concert with Max Muncy. Zion Rose looks the part of a solid 2-WAR player. His hands are twitchy, he’s fast, and he’s in incredible shape. I’d like to see what he looks like in center field because I think he runs well enough to try it, but he’s only played left so far. Peete may not quite be ready for the 50-FV tier, but he’s close. He’s running really well, looks fine in center field, and his strikeouts have stabilized after they looked like they might be his undoing early in his career. The Best of the New Names Joey Dixon, RHP, Houston Astros Sam Horn, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers Maddox Long, RHP, Detroit Tigers Joe Ariola, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks Dixon missed multiple years recovering from Tommy John surgery and then most of 2026 dealing with a shoulder issue, and even when he pitched he wasn’t 100%. His velo is back and I’ve seen him parked at 94-97 while flashing bat-missing sliders and changeups. He’s smaller than most starters and his injury history points to the bullpen, but potentially as a multi-inning, platoon-neutral weapon. He’s getting added to The Board with a 40+ FV, the grade of a good bullpen’s third- or fourth-best guy. Sam Horn was a college quarterback at Missouri who missed time because of an elbow surgery and a fractured tibia. He rehabbed throughout 2026 and was active during Bridge League/Instructs, but I didn’t see him then because on the one day I knew he’d be pitching, Jackson Flora was making his uniformed debut for the Giants. In the AFL, Horn has been 93-96 with a plus slider and changeup. It’s a great starting point for someone who hasn’t pitched consistently since high school. Long and Ariola look like standard middle relievers who could be ready fast. Long was at three different colleges across five seasons, then Indy ball. He’s 6-foot-5, 290 pounds, has a really loose delivery, a heavy low-90s sinker, and a plus slider that he commands with uncommon consistency. Ariola has a riding 93-94 mph fastball and hammer curveball, pretty standard lefty fare in the Caleb Thielbar mold.