Analysis. Russia Aiming to Kill Ukraine’s Internet – Can It Succeed?

Over the past two weeks, Russia has been striking data centers of Ukrainian internet providers. After the Sept. 23 strikes, about 100,000 households reported internet problems, with critical UTELS equipment left damaged and FEX.NET experiencing disruptions.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. The strikes continued for a few days, this time hitting Kyivstar telecommunications centers, with Domonet, Kievnet, and Faust being added to the list of affected providers. Equipment belonging to host companies, Cityhost and MiroHost, was also destroyed. Russia subsequently acknowledged that it was deliberately striking facilities that support Ukraine’s internet network, with the following strikes targeting national operator Ukrtelecom. The Sept. 28 strike on the Academy of Sciences occurred near the premises of a Ukrtelecom division, while the strike on the Dobrobut clinic was also linked to Ukrtelecom – their company division had been located there many years ago. This raised the question: Can Ukraine withstand the attacks, and will internet access remain available if Russian strikes intensify? Will mobile communications survive? We spoke with three experts in the field and our sources. Russia’s limited understanding of Ukrainian realities Spoiler alert – yes, Ukraine’s internet network and mobile communications system are highly resilient. The first reason is Russia’s relatively poor understanding of where communications infrastructure is actually located. Other Topics of Interest Russia Aims to Cripple Kyiv Before Winter, Fuel Political Unrest Ukrainian officials warn of a campaign combining missile and drone strikes, sabotage and disinformation, with attacks expected to peak in November. “Even the strike on the former Ukrtelecom building, where the Dobrobut clinic is now located, shows how poor Russian intelligence is, because Ukrtelecom hasn’t been there for several years,” one source at a telecommunications company told us. This is particularly significant given that Russia does not know the exact locations of most data centers operated by Ukraine’s largest providers. The strikes on Ukrtelecom also show that Russians appear to regard it, by analogy with Rostelecom, as a major operator simply because it has national status. However, that is not the case. Ukrtelecom remains the monopoly operator of fixed-line telephones and wired radio – traditional forms of communication that are now used by relatively few Ukrainians. Ukrtelecom has around one million internet subscribers, making it a mid-sized provider – just one of many players in the market. And that is the most interesting part. A chair with a thousand legs Ukraine’s internet services market is highly decentralized. Russian strikes that hit Ukrainian providers’ infrastructure caused internet problems for less than 3% of all Ukrainian subscribers for several hours. Those disruptions were resolved within a few hours. Why? “Even large providers have a decentralized structure. Not to mention smaller ones. There are currently almost 2,000 providers operating in Ukraine. And almost every one has backups, security systems, and redundancy. Can there be problems? Yes, especially when some ‘smart guys’ post the consequences of strikes. But there will be no catastrophe,” says Oleksandr Olshanskyi, known as the “father of the Ukrainian internet,” a Ukrainian entrepreneur and public figure in the information technology sector. According to him, if all the basic security requirements are properly implemented, taking down a provider is virtually impossible. “There should be an ordinary backup of the data, a backup of the backup, and a ‘doomsday copy’ that cannot be accessed from the network. If this is done, data recovery is a matter of several hours,” Olshanskyi says. Cybersecurity expert Kostyantyn Korzun compared the Ukrainian internet to a chair. “And this chair has a thousand legs. These are thousands of providers, each with data centers, towers, and ‘wells.’ Even if you cut off five, six, or seven legs of such a chair, it will still stand,” Korzun says. Providers are cooperative and supportive of one another. They have already dealt with attacks on their equipment – for example, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion and in the summer of 2025. “Towers and equipment can be restored quickly. I am a customer of a provider that was hit recently, and everything was restored within two hours. Yes, strikes on towers will take a little longer to recover from. But providers have united and dealt with all the threats together, and they will deal with the next ones as well. So the question is not whether they can ‘take down’ the internet, but how much they can disrupt it or make its use less convenient,” Korzun says. What could that inconvenience look like? According to former Kyivstar corporate and law department director Andrii Osadchuk, the largest provider of mobile internet and mobile communications, it could affect video quality. “We will watch, for example, videos that are not in the best quality. Well, it’s nothing terrible – somehow we watched them 10-15 years ago,” he says. In his view, mobile communications are also fairly decentralized and resilient. “Large companies – Kyivstar, Vodafone, Lifecell – are corporations that operate with billions of euros in funds. People know how to work with this, including when it comes to security, to keep networks flexible enough to respond to challenges and communications centers secure. I see no reason for panic,” Osadchuk emphasizes. But what if… All three experts say there is no reason to expect an “internet catastrophe” even in the event of heavy strikes. “For example, the National Roaming service has existed for mobile networks for a long time – meaning you can use a network with a SIM card from a separate operator. You don’t even need to buy another operator’s SIM card. So I do not expect a real apocalypse,” Olshanskyi says. One of Ukraine’s networks – Kyivstar – also has satellite connectivity, which can be used if mobile communications completely disappear. “Theoretically, you can purchase a SIM card from the relevant operator with a package that supports satellite connectivity and, by going out into an open area, use satellite communications. But it would only work if mobile communications completely collapsed, which is an unlikely apocalyptic scenario,” Olshanskyi says. Osadchuk also says there is no reason to panic. In some cities, for example, Starlink works effectively and is now used by many private companies, including supermarkets, cafes, and beauty salons. Many transport companies, for example, sometimes even install it on intercity buses to provide passengers with continuous Wi-Fi during trips, including in frontline areas. One carrier even told the author of this article that if there were no internet in the settlement from which its buses depart, it would provide residents with access to the heated bus cabin so they could use the internet. Starlink is also widely used in private homes and townhouses in the suburbs. The price of Starlink in Ukraine is currently relatively low – starting at Hr.17,000 (less than $400). However, many owners now say that even such purchases turned out to be unnecessary. As a result, many Starlink systems can now be found on the secondary market in almost-new condition for even less – from Hr.6,000-11,000 ($150-$250) for used equipment, depending on its condition and completeness. This makes it accessible to practically every resident of the capital and relatively affordable for residents of the regions.