After strong monsoon, winter rainfall could recharge Arizona aquifers

Wildfires burned 80% fewer acres than last year in Arizona, thanks in part to increased rainfall in most areas of the state.PHOENIX (CN) — On the heels of the two driest winters on record, drought conditions across Arizona have slightly receded thanks to a strong monsoon boosted by tropical storms and a strong El Niño in the Pacific.Arizona received above average precipitation in September and the first half of October, especially in the Phoenix Valley and up north in Coconino and Yavapai Counties.“It’s really difficult to see any signature of drought in those areas,” National Weather Service meteorologist Mark O’Malley said of northern Arizona.O’Malley presented a silver lining to Arizona’s Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Thursday morning, but assured his fellow experts that the end of the long-term drought is still far off.“Unfortunately over the past several years we’ve been much warmer than average,” he said.Arizona has seen at-or-above average precipitation levels in just 10 years since 1993, and record-breaking heat in recent summers has only made matters worse. Still, the most recent water year, measured from October 2025 through the end of the monsoon this past September, was “overall not horrible across the state.”Last year’s monsoon brought heavy rainfall to Phoenix and Yuma County, but left most of the state relatively dry. But a relatively wet October 2025 and a strong monsoon in September 2026 means at least some parts of the state received above-average precipitation throughout the year.O’Malley reminded the committee that the highlights don’t tell the whole story — the 10 months between the two were still some of the driest on record.“You can’t get away from the fact that last winter and last monsoon of 2025 were quite poor,” he said.Arizona’s strong monsoon was fueled in part by what experts have referred to as a “Super El Niño” that carried moisture from warming Pacific waters through the American Southwest. The El Niño also tends to supercharge hurricanes in the Pacific.Arizona’s rainfall also received a boost from tropical storms like Hurricane Polo, the longest-lasting Category 5 storm to ever stir in the Pacific. Still the research group World Weather Attribution estimated that global climate change did more to fuel the historic storm than the El Niño.Groundwater aquifers are still in deficits, but increased soil moisture over the last few weeks could spell good news for the coming runoff season.Stephen Flora, a senior hydrologist at the Salt River Project, said the Salt and Verde River watersheds are above 100% capacity thanks to heavy rain. They supply nearly 60% of Phoenix’s municipal drinking water.“We will see very efficient runoff if we do get a wetter winter,” Flora told the committee. “We can refill the system in one wet year.”Despite the good news, the conditions to the northwest haven’t improved quite as much.“There were no miracles this year,” said James Heffner, a senior hydrologist at the Arizona Department of Water Resources. “No basin was spared.”Lakes Powell and Mead both still sit below 30% of their capacity, and some say they could reach “deadpool” in a few short years, meaning water likely would fail to flow through the dam. Recently, Arizona agreed to sacrifice nearly a third of its share of the Colorado River over the next two years, with further cuts possible down the line.Less than 65,000 acres of Arizona forests burned in the last 12 months — an 80% decrease from last year.“I can’t remember the last time we burned under 100,000 acres in a year,” said Tiffany Davila, public affairs officer for the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management.More than a quarter of that burning was done by the Pocket Fire, which seared Sedona for more than a month before it was contained in late July.Davila said the decrease was thanks in part to the increased precipitation, but also to fortunate weather patterns that doused potential burns during peak fuel seasons.Davila warned that 2027 could see a “fuel explosion” because how little dead brush was burned this year, but hopes forecasted snowfall in Flagstaff and the White Mountains of eastern Arizona will delay or shorten the 2027 wildfire season.The committee will next meet in January to examine the effects of fall precipitation to come. Before that, the Governor Katie Hobbs’ drought interagency coordination group will meet in November to determine whether to recommend that current drought declarations be kept in place.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads