‘A Way for Russian Occupiers Go Home’: Ukraine Intel Reveals Why Kerch Bridge Still Stands

The bridge that Russian President Vladimir Putin built to cement Russia’s grip on occupied Crimea remains a powerful symbol of Moscow’s occupation. But as Ukraine intensifies its campaign to isolate Russian-occupied Crimea, striking railways, roads, ports, fuel facilities and other logistics nodes across the peninsula, one of the most recognizable symbols of Moscow’s occupation remains intact. Why?JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Major General Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR), offered a rare explanation during a panel discussion at the annual Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference this week. According to Skibitsky, the answer is partly practical: the Kerch Bridge is simply no longer as important to Russia’s military supply logistics as it once was. “It’s really not so strategic an object for the Russian Federation today,” Skibitsky said.Ukraine has already destroyed or disrupted numerous other logistics routes across occupied Crimea, he pointed out, while Russia has increasingly shifted the movement of military supplies toward the land corridor running through occupied southern Ukraine. Most military cargo, including weapons destined for Russian forces fighting in Ukraine now moves through Russia’s Rostov region and then along the so-called land bridge through occupied Ukrainian territory, according to Skibitsky. Political weight Despite the logistical shift, the Kerch Bridge has long been one of the most politically and strategically significant pieces of infrastructure linking Russia with the Ukrainian peninsula it illegally annexed in 2014. Other Topics of Interest Russian Strikes Injure 12 Across Odesa, Ternopil, and Konotop Russian strikes hit Odesa, Ternopil, and Konotop on Sunday, injuring at least 12 people and damaging a high-rise, botanical garden, and rail depot. “For Russia, for Putin, the Kerch Bridge is a symbol of the occupation of Crimea,” Skibitsky emphasized. With that in mind, he offered another reason for keeping it standing – with a pointed message to Russian forces on the peninsula. “It’s maybe one of the ways for Russian occupiers to return home.” Ukraine has repeatedly targeted the bridge since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, damaging it in major attacks in 2022 and 2023 and again targeting the crossing in subsequent operations. But Ukraine’s strategy toward Crimea has increasingly expanded beyond the bridge itself. Skibitsky also recalled that the bridge had previously been a focal point of Western fears of escalation. He noted that several years ago, during discussions around Ukrainian operations against the crossing, some European countries raised concerns that destroying it could provoke a major Russian escalation, including nuclear threats. Today, however, HUR assesses that the bridge’s military significance has diminished. The discussion over the Kerch Bridge led directly to a broader question: whether Vladimir Putin could actually use nuclear weapons if Russia faced a major military setback. Any Russian use of nuclear weapons, including tactical nuclear weapons, would have consequences extending far beyond Ukraine and could reshape security calculations in other regions of the world, he said. For that reason, Russia’s nuclear rhetoric remains a tool of pressure, but the Kremlin also has to consider the international consequences of crossing that threshold. Missiles, drones and the wider threat Skibitsky then outlined what HUR considers one of Ukraine’s most immediate military threats: Russia’s expanding missile and drone campaign. “It’s not a risk, it’s a real threat,” he said. According to HUR’s assessment, Russia’s defense industry plans to produce at least 100 ballistic missiles in September. Russia is also using North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine, Skibitsky said. Asked how Ukraine could counter the threat, he described a multi-layered strategy. The first element is obtaining more interceptor missiles from Ukraine’s partners. The second is striking the factories and enterprises producing Russian ballistic missiles. “We absolutely know all enterprises, factories, companies that are involved in the production of such ballistic missiles on the territory of Russia,” Skibitsky said. The third is attacking the launchers themselves. According to Skibitsky, Russia can deploy between 17 and 19 ballistic missile launchers in regions including Kursk and Voronezh for strikes targeting Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. And the fourth element is sanctions – particularly restrictions preventing Russia from obtaining foreign navigation systems and electronic components needed for its weapons industry. Skibitsky also addressed cooperation between Russian and Chinese companies supporting Russia’s industrial capabilities. HUR, he said, is aware of enterprises involved in joint production with Chinese companies. But many are located more than 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine, making them difficult to reach even with Ukraine’s expanding deep-strike capabilities. That makes international sanctions particularly important, Skibitsky said. He pointed to problems Russia has encountered obtaining Chinese-made jet engines for certain unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) programs as evidence that pressure on supply chains can work. Another unusual part of the discussion centered on Russian e-commerce giants Wildberries and Ozon. Asked why facilities apparently associated with civilian businesses were being targeted, Skibitsky said HUR does not consider every such site purely civilian. “Wildberries and Ozon and other such centers in the Russian Federation are really involved in the logistics system of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation,” he said. According to Skibitsky, disrupting these networks is part of a much broader Ukrainian campaign against Russia’s military logistics. Ukraine first focused on logistics in occupied Crimea and other occupied territories, seeking to break supply routes supporting Russian forces in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions. The campaign has since expanded as Kyiv attempts to identify and strike the wider logistics infrastructure sustaining Russia’s war. Kateryna investigates today's most important topics, from geopolitical challenges and defense strategies to stories that change the course of events. She explores the secrets of Ukraine's intelligence services and shows the hidden side of global events. Her passion is uncovering secrets that change history. Born and lives in Kyiv.