A pivotal election in Israel, and Netanyahu’s next test

All eyes on Jerusalem: Roughly seven million eligible Israeli voters will head to polling stations today to cast their ballot in the country’s first legislative election since the 7 October attacks in 2023. Incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the right-wing Likud party has dominated Israeli politics for the last two decades, and another victory would confirm unshakable confidence from his constituents, particularly after three years of war. ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT A defeat, however, could spell trouble. Netanyahu's main political rivals are led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, whose two sons were killed in combat. “What he is offering is an eternal war,” Eisenkot, the Yashar party leader, said in a radio interview. Although the pair share some policy positions — they both reject a two-state solution and favour a hard-line approach with Iran — Eisenkot is campaigning on a simple premise: he is not Netanyahu. Yossi Mekelberg, senior consulting fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, just said on Europe Today that a new government led by the opposition would bring about meaningful change. This would be manifested hopefully through a state commission into the 7 October attacks. “The more the (current) government rejects the idea, the more people are suspicious that they have something to hide,” he said. Watch. Brussels watches: It remains to be seen whether the election will change how the EU engages with Israel. The capitals maintain an EU-Israel Association Agreement, which entered into force in 2000, that, among other measures, establishes a free trade area for industrial goods, agricultural trade preferences, and a framework for political, economic, and cultural cooperation. According to Amnesty International, however, the EU and all its member states are under a “clear obligation” to prevent trade and investments that assist in the maintenance of Israel’s unlawful occupation of Palestinian territories, as set out in the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion of July 2024. Despite the agreement remaining in force, the EU executive has also tried — and failed — to ban trade with illegal Israeli settlements. Meanwhile, relations between the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas and her Israeli counterpart Gideon Sa’ar remain fractious at best. Hope is in the air: Diplomats wanted to remain tight-lipped when speaking to me about the election occurring just over 3,000 kilometres away, and what it means for relations between European capitals and Israel. However, one EU insider said there was “some hope” to find common ground with the new administration, whomever that may be. Have I read that right? US President Donald Trump’s top officials allegedly want former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to be considered as the United Nations’ new secretary-general. According to a Wall Street Journal report, Washington kingmakers have allegedly tapped the former prime minister for the top job, but nothing is certain yet. As my colleagues Sandor Zsiros and Ferenc Horvath report, the proposal could be a joint US-China-Russia bid, but securing the position is not as easy as it seems. At least one UN member state has voiced its opposition, too. “I am certain that Viktor Orbán, as UN Secretary-General, would put to good use the masterful veto and blackmail skills he has developed over years of derailing major EU decisions,” Ukrainian Minister for Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha opined. Speaking of Ukraine: Defence ministers from Europe’s biggest military powers — France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom — met in Paris Monday for a meeting centred on support for Ukraine and the spiralling war in Iran. The strongest commentary to come out from the gathering was NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska, who stated that the ministers agreed “all allies” must “dig deep and do more — especially with air and missile defence” for Ukraine. “We need to do it now, because every night the pressure from Russia is felt in almost every Ukrainian city,” she said. Time goes by: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on Monday he has waited “nearly a month” for US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to approve Patriot missiles, among other weapons, to counter Russia’s advances. “Conversations with other countries are also ongoing,” he said. Over four and a half years into the full-scale invasion, Moscow has shown no signs of abating its relentless aggression. This is abundantly clear with non-stop aerial attacks battering Kyiv and other civilian areas, with the country lacking appropriate air defences to air attacks, such as deadly jet-powered drones. Efforts by the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas to convince countries to pledge interceptor missiles to help defend against Ukraine have also failed. Shifting tides: Complicating the matter on the ground is US President Donald Trump’s shifting alliances, manifesting recently through a controversial diesel deal catching Zelenskyy and European allies off guard. Sudden restrictions to Starlink technology, owned by Trump ally Elon Musk, also demonstrates fraying support from Washington. Should we be surprised? Retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges recently told Euronews that Trump would always support Russia and that “he was never going to support Ukraine.” How can Europe step in? Officials in Brussels are examining possible solutions for a widening funding gap of roughly €70 billion for 2027 to continue supporting the ally to the east. Commission news: The European Commission will unveil new climate rules on Tuesday requiring EU governments to clarify who is responsible for protecting citizens from climate disasters, Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra told Euronews. In an interview with EU news editor Maria Tadeo, Hoekstra warned that the world is heading towards a temporary or potentially prolonged overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit, making it essential for governments to prepare for more extreme heat and climate disasters, even if efforts to cut emissions succeed. “It is up to member states to decide where they want to put that responsibility. But what we do make mandatory is that they do have to appoint and articulate where the responsibility is going to lie,” Hoekstra said. Marta Pacheco has more on that important story. One more thing: The EU executive will also propose new rules today beefing up the bloc’s border security. As part of the pitch, Frontex will be allowed to transfer migrants between third countries, expanding its operations beyond Europe and facilitating deportations from return hubs. Read more of that must-read reporting by Vincenzo Genovese. Ukraine’s €70 billion shortfall could make or break the next EU budget The fight over the European Union's next seven-year budget has taken a new twist, one that could very well make it or break it. In an explosive mix, the fraught negotiations have overlapped with the effort to fill Ukraine's €70 billion shortfall for 2027. The vast scale of the deficit prompted a change of agenda in next month's special summit, which was originally planned to focus exclusively on the draft budget. The meeting has now been expanded to last two days, 26 and 27 November, to allow time for the discussion on Ukraine. New proposals on both fronts are expected. Technically, the two issues remain separate. But politically, diplomats and officials say, they are becoming rapidly intertwined. Both are about money and both come with a pressing deadline before the French elections in April. “We need a structural solution for financing Ukraine. We can’t keep scrambling at the end of every year under pressure,” an official said. “It’s good that these discussions are coming together in November.” Will Ukraine make it easier or harder to agree on the budget? Jorge Liboreiro weighs the odds in his latest analysis. More from our newsrooms Zelenskyy's planned Brussels visit for peace talks cancelled. Zelenskyy said the now-nixed visit would see Ukraine, the US, EU and NATO gather in high-level talks centred on security guarantees and diplomatic efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine. Sasha Vakulina has the details. Serbia’s student victory raises hopes of an EU reset. The Student List’s election win ends Vučić’s 14-year rule and raises hopes of an EU reset, but its stance on Russia sanctions and Kosovo leaves Brussels cautious. Luca Bertuzzi reports. EU set to miss 2030 marine protection targets, auditors warn. Despite designating 14% of its waters as protected areas, the EU has placed less than 1% under strict protection, leaving marine ecosystems vulnerable to damaging fishing practices and putting its 2030 biodiversity targets at risk. More on this story. We’re also keeping an eye on European Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib’s visit to Canada continues. The Agriculture and Fisheries Council meeting kicks off with a focus on fisheries in Luxembourg. European Commissioner for Trade Maroš Šefčovič meets with President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde in Frankfurt, Germany. European Commissioner for the Economy Valdis Dombrovskis meets with Baltic and Finnish farmers in Brussels. European Commissioner for Environment, Water Resilience and a Competitive Circular Economy Jessika Roswall meets Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Yerevan. That’s it for today. Jorge Liboreiro and Marta Pacheco contributed to this newsletter.