A blue ripple in Idaho raises questions about its political future

BOISE, Idaho (CN) — While a blue tsunamihit severalstates in the nation during midterm elections last week, decimating many Republican strongholds, Democrats’ impact in deep-red Idaho was more of a splash.While Democrats swept every statewide office in Texas and Georgia, and made significant gains in other typically red and battleground states, their success in Idaho, where no Democrat has won a statewide office since 2002, was more modest: They gained six seats in the Idaho Legislature.Nevertheless, those results got folks wondering: Could Idaho turn blue?“Even though it didn’t result in a blue wave in Idaho, it certainly resulted in quite a few wavelets,” Ross Burkhart, a political science professor at Boise State University, said of the recent midterm election. “And those are actually fairly noticeable.”Democrats flipped five state House seats and one state Senate seat, taking full control of three competitive districts in west Boise, the Magic Valley and Pocatello. Republicans still hold supermajorities in both chambers.Burkhart said those districts have elected Democrats before, so the locations of the victories weren’t particularly surprising. What stood out to him was that all six seats flipped during the same election.Markie McBrayer, an associate professor of political science at the University of Idaho, also said Idaho’s Democratic gains were more substantial than they might appear.“Right now the narrative seems to be that Democrats didn’t make gains in Idaho or that the blue wave missed Idaho, but that’s not quite true,” McBrayer said.Compared with the 2022 midterms, Idaho’s U.S. House races saw an average shift of about 12 percentage points toward Democrats, she said. The national shift was roughly 14 to 15 points.But in Idaho, Republicans had much larger leads to begin with. In the 2022 and 2024 elections, Representative Russ Fulcher won by about 45 percentage points, while Representative Mike Simpson’s winning margins ranged from 25 to 30 points.“These are numbers that are difficult to overcome with a wave,” McBrayer said.She also said Idaho can’t be directly compared to states like Texas — where Democrats won a U.S. Senate seat for the first time since 1988 and the governor’s office for the first time since 1990 — and Georgia — which also elected its first Democratic governor in more than two decades — because of some key differences between them.“Many of the comparisons being made right now are to states in the South,” she said. “These states are much more racially diverse and have a more traditionalistic political culture.”Texas Democrats had also spent years trying to make the state competitive, she said, coming close in the 2018 U.S. Senate race.Idaho, meanwhile, has a Republican voter registration advantage that Burkhart estimated at roughly six to one.“There are more registered independents in Idaho than there are registered Democrats,” he said.Still, not everyone who votes Republican thinks Idaho will stay that way.Mike Owens, a Boise voter who asked to use an alias, described himself as a straight-ticket Republican, said he was surprised by the Democratic victories nationally. He blamed the results partly on inflation, the economy and war.“I think gas prices and increased inflation prices across the board is number one,” Owens said. “I think the war is number two.”His friend Steve Lewis, who described himself as fiscally conservative but somewhat more liberal on social issues, wasn’t as surprised. He said the economy likely played a role and pointed to the historical tendency for the president’s party to lose ground in midterm elections.“I guess in hindsight, it was probably to be expected what happened, and I’m not overly concerned,” Lewis said.But when asked whether Idaho could eventually turn blue, Owens said he thought it was possible.“The influx of people is going to change that, and I think that there’s enough money getting thrown around in this state now to win elections to move the needle,” he said.However, Burkhart said newcomers tend to be as conservative as longtime Idaho residents, particularly those settling in the northern and southwestern parts of the state.“The people who’ve moved to Idaho are generally as conservative as people are in Idaho,” he said. “So they talk about partisan sorting, where you sort out based upon political persuasions — Idaho certainly has a reputation for being friendly for people on the right.”According to Boise State University’s annual Idaho Public Policy Survey, about 40% of people who moved to Idaho in the past decade identified as Republicans, roughly the same proportion as long-term residents.Despite being one of the most Republican states in the country, Idaho hasn’t always been so firmly red.The state last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater. Democrats continued to hold prominent offices for decades afterward. Cecil Andrus served four terms as governor, leaving office in 1995. Frank Church represented Idaho in the U.S. Senate until 1981, and the state Senate was evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans as recently as 1990.Burkhart said much of Idaho’s Democratic history was tied to labor unions in the timber, mining and railroad industries. Pocatello, a longtime Union Pacific railroad hub, developed a stronger Democratic tradition than many other Idaho cities. As those industries declined, so did the political influence of organized labor. The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 also helped strengthen Republicans in Idaho, according to the professor.“Some of the reasons for a strong Democratic Party began to disappear in Idaho, and weren’t really replaced by anything,” he said. “There was always a strong Republican presence too, but that resonated and remained afterwards.”For some Democratic voters in Boise, the national election results brought relief, even if Idaho’s results were disappointing.Alyssa Grimwis, Logan Hawk and Rosalind Triplett all said they voted primarily for Democrats. All three also supported Proposition 1, a ballot initiative that would have restored abortion rights in Idaho. Grimwis said she wanted to protect women’s rights and bring more balance to government. She voted for Democratic legislative candidates, “just hopefully to try to even things out a little bit more to get all voices heard.”Hawk said she wasn’t surprised Idaho remained Republican, but the national results gave her some hope.“I heard the news of the blue wave. I got up. My chest felt lighter. Like my steps were floating,” she said.Triplett was particularly disappointed that Idaho voters rejected Proposition 1.“Our low standard was at least Prop One would be yes, and they couldn’t even get that,” she said. “I feel like a lot of people find safety in being the ‘red Idaho.'”The measure failed, with nearly 56% voting against it and 44% in favor. Burkhart said the margin was notable in a state where Republicans so heavily outnumber Democrats. He compared it with the defeat of a 2024 ballot initiative to introduce ranked-choice voting, which lost by roughly a two-to-one margin.“The fact that that proposition was relatively close, I think, says something,” he said.He said the results suggested more Democrats may have turned out to vote this year than in previous elections. But similar gains have happened before. Idaho Democrats picked up six legislative seats in 2006 and four in 2018, both years when Republicans faced political backlash.Without a doubt, winning elections in Idaho remains an uphill battle for Democrats. McBrayer said some candidates have experimented with running as independents because Democrats have struggled to win more than 40% of the vote. One such example is Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state lawmaker who ran as an independent against Republican U.S. Senator Jim Risch this year. Achilles received about 33.5% of the vote.Burkhart said Idaho Republicans have also benefited from decades of electoral success. He compared the party to a sports team with a winning tradition — one that can survive a difficult season.“A strong political party combined with strong partisan registrations can withstand it,” he said.For Democrats, however, the state’s six new legislative wins could still make a difference.Burkhart said the gains might give the party more representation on legislative committees, including a possible additional seat on the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee, which helps write Idaho’s budget. That could give Democrats a greater voice in budget decisions after lawmakers approved widespread spending cuts this year to offset reduced revenue from state and federal tax cuts.“So, from the Democratic standpoint, even though it was kind of a wavelet, not a big wave, these moves forward for the Democrats will help increase their powers,” Burkhart said.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads